Hurricane Vance Forecast To Weaken As It Nears Mexico's Pacific Coast; High Surf, Rip Currents Likely

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Hurricane Vance continues to maintain strength over the eastern Pacific Ocean, about 500 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. It became a Sunday evening with winds of 105 mph.  
 
 However, its time of intensification appears to be ending.

Vance's latest position, motion, and top wind speeds.

Hurricane Vance is tracking to the north-northwest, and is expected to begin its northeast turn toward the southwest Mexican coast, as a mid-level near the southern Baja California peninsula shifts eastward and a approaches.

The forecast path for Hurricane Vance.

Vance may peak as a major (Category 3 or higher) hurricane Monday. If so, it would be the ninth major hurricane of 2014 in the Eastern Pacific (10 if one counts Genevieve), and would break the eastern Pacific seasonal record for Category 3 or stronger hurricanes, according to hurricane specialist, .

However, wind shear is already increasing over Vance, and, given Vance's tiny size (hurricane-force winds only up to 15 miles from center), rapid weakening is possible beginning Tuesday. Vance may spin down so quickly that it may never make landfall as a tropical cyclone, rather as a remnant low, late Wednesday or early Thursday generally north of Puerto Vallarta.

Those along the southwest Mexican coast and the southern Baja Peninsula, including Cabo San Lucas, Puerto Vallarta and Mazatlan should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Given Vance's initially powerful winds, swells from Vance will churn up high surf and rip currents at Mexico's Pacific beaches, even if the storm itself loses steam before reaching land. The potentially dangerous conditions for swimmers may reach parts of Mexico's coast as early as Monday or Tuesday.

Vance is the 20th named storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. The last time 20 or more named storms formed in that basin was 1992, when the entire list of 24 names was used, ending with Tropical Storm Zeke.

Zeke is also the "Z" storm on this year's list. Eastern Pacific names rotate every six years unless retired, except for names starting with X, Y, and Z. Those are rarely used, and thus just two names are on the list for each of those letters, one male and one female, alternating every other year.

Vance became a Category 1 hurricane Sunday morning, making it the 14th hurricane of 2014 within the Eastern Pacific basin. (Genevieve, which started in the Eastern Pacific, became a hurricane in the Central Pacific basin -- if one counts Genevieve, there have been 15 hurricanes with Eastern Pacific origins this year.)