Former Mexico manager Jose Manuel de la Torre is tasked with trying to keep Chivas de Guadalajara in Liga MX. Will he be able to turn things around at the struggling Mexican giant?
GUADALAJARA, Mexico -- May 3, 2015: The day one Liga MX institution will be faced with relegation to the Ascenso MX. The central story in Mexican soccer between now and then is whether Chivas de Guadalajara will be that team.
The club is a Liga MX giant -- boasting over 30 million fans in Mexico and the United States -- but has been run into a cul-de-sac under the current ownership. The chopping and changing of managers and sporting directors have led to instability, poor results and fans not showing up at Estadio Omnilife. Bitter Mexico City rival Club America overtook Chivas by winning the Apertura 2014 for their 12th title, putting the current situations of Mexico's " big two" in stark contrast.
Chivas haven't made the playoffs since scraping into eighth position in the Apertura 2012 and have earned an average of 0.96 points per game -- and 0.85 goals per match -- over the four seasons since. If that continues over the 17 regular-season games of the Clausura 2015, Chivas will be agonizingly close to the drop. It would be like Liverpool or Manchester United exiting the Premier League, or Real Madrid or Barcelona flirting with relegation from La Liga. But there is no way Guadalajara should be anywhere near relegation in May after the offseason the team has had, at least on paper.
Club president Nestor de la Torre has done a good job in putting together a strong side. Player for player, Chivas are the best among the relegation-threatened teams -- Veracruz, Puebla, Leones Negros -- by some distance. In have come Marco Fabian, Raul Lopez and Miguel Ponce from loan spells, as well as Erick "Cubo" Torres (on loan from MLS side Houston Dynamo) and Isaac Brizuela (as a permanent buy).
The starting XI should look something like this: Antonio Rodriguez, Nestor Vidrio, Carlos Salcido, Jair Pereira, Ponce, Israel Castro, Fernando Arce, Fabian, Brizuela, Torres, Aldo de Nigris.
That's good enough in terms of talent to be midtable at a minimum and really should be sufficient for Chivas to push for the playoff spots, especially as the club has had a full preseason and has genuine strength in depth for the first time in many years. The issues of lacking a creative force should be aided by Fabian and Brizuela, while Torres and De Nigris could form a lethal strike partnership, with Omar Bravo and Carlos Fierro as backup.
But having written all that, Chivas wouldn't be where they are if relegation was based on the criteria of player ability alone. The Guadalajara giant has become almost a black hole into which talent is sucked and disappears, as evidenced by the plight of Fabian, Ponce and Jorge Enriquez after winning Olympic gold at London 2012. Then there are solid signings like De Nigris, Luis Perez and Angel Reyna completely failing to fire.
Former Chivas director of sporting development Albert Benaiges spoke of his brief stint at the club earlier in 2014 in a recent interview with ESPN FC. "That club is very convulsive and very strange," was his assessment.
After all, Chivas have had 11 coaches since the Apertura 2009 and three permanent ones in 2014 alone. The truth is that Chivas hasn't seemed like a happy place for years, and the relegation battle has come about because of the constant change and instability.
It all means the start to the season is more vital than even common sense would logically suggest. Chivas' opening five games are against Chiapas (away), Pumas (home), Leones Negros (away) and Pachuca (home). None will be easy, but they are all winnable. Fifteen points on the board early would quickly lift the gloom and spur talk of the playoffs, but if Chivas manages only one win from those five, the pressure would be ratcheted up and the relegation battle would rage.
On the bench, the experienced Jose Manuel "Chepo" de la Torre should be able to build on the solidity of last season and now has more firepower at his disposal to do damage at the other end of the pitch. However, things spiraled out of control for him with the national team and he has little experience negotiating teams out of trouble when things aren't going well.
The example of the relegation of Argentine giant River Plate is both obvious and serves as a warning to what can happen when panic grips a massive club plagued by relegation turmoil. The margins are now frighteningly small for Chivas as the club approaches an undesirably vital point in its history.
The Liga MX relegation situation in numbers:
In Liga MX, relegation is worked out by the points-per-games ratio over the past six seasons (three years). Designed to protect the big clubs, Chivas have been consistently poor and the table is very tight, especially with the ratio of the most recently promoted clubs' Leones Negros and Veracruz being so volatile.
Chivas 1.0353 (88 points from 85 matches)
Puebla 1.0000 (85 points from 85 matches)
Leones Negros 1.000 (17 points from 17 matches)
Veracruz 1.000 (51 points from 51 matches)
Chivas' relegation rivals
Puebla -- Eight new signings, including three experienced strikers -- Matias Alustiza, Herculez Gomez, Luis Gabriel Rey -- should give La Franja the firepower needed to be far better than last season.
Leones Negros -- A poor start to life back in the first division got better gradually during Apertura 2014 to the point where Leones Negros ended it with seven games undefeated. Three new South American signings -- Jonathan Gonzalez, Juan Luis Anangono, Fernando Guerrero -- should mean they are stronger this time out.
Veracruz -- Failed to score in their last three of the Apertura and are probably just about favorite to go down. Nine incoming players -- five from South America, three from the Ascenso MX -- mean Veracruz are a bit of an unknown heading into the Clausura.
TOM MARSHALL
Tom Marshall has been based in Guadalajara since 2008 and has specialized in writing about Mexican football ever since. As well as contributing to ESPN Insider's Mexico national team blog (@ESPNtri), he co-hosts The Mexican Soccer Show podcast and can be found on Twitter @MexicoWorldCup
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